Okay, so you think gamblers are good at predicting elections?
Why do you think this when you can’t find data to back up their predictions? What kind of “prediction market” doesn’t keep data on past predictions? Seems like an easy way to hide failure to me.
Well, this guy does keep track and the record looks pretty good. The average of several different prediction markets on 8/5/20 had odds of Biden 59.1 Trump 37.8.
Okay, so you think gamblers are good at predicting elections?
Why do you think this when you can’t find data to back up their predictions? What kind of “prediction market” doesn’t keep data on past predictions? Seems like an easy way to hide failure to me.
Well, this guy does keep track and the record looks pretty good. The average of several different prediction markets on 8/5/20 had odds of Biden 59.1 Trump 37.8.
Interesting. Good to see data enter the conversation finally. It [looks like on average, betting markets are about as good as Nate silver.
They also appear to have issues with legality in the US, which limits their effectiveness as a market, and they tend to be very “vibes” based in the short term.
I think that’s a good assessment of the current state of affairs.