spaduf@slrpnk.net to Microblog Memes@lemmy.worldEnglish · 10 months agoMeta Hires Project 2025 Co-Authorslrpnk.netexternal-linkmessage-square52fedilinkarrow-up11arrow-down10 cross-posted to: [email protected]
arrow-up11arrow-down1external-linkMeta Hires Project 2025 Co-Authorslrpnk.netspaduf@slrpnk.net to Microblog Memes@lemmy.worldEnglish · 10 months agomessage-square52fedilink cross-posted to: [email protected]
minus-squareArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up0·edit-210 months agoWell, this guy does keep track and the record looks pretty good. The average of several different prediction markets on 8/5/20 had odds of Biden 59.1 Trump 37.8.
minus-squaremosiacmango@lemm.eelinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up0·edit-210 months agoInteresting. Good to see data enter the conversation finally. It [looks like on average, betting markets are about as good as Nate silver. They also appear to have issues with legality in the US, which limits their effectiveness as a market, and they tend to be very “vibes” based in the short term.
minus-squareArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up0·10 months agoI think that’s a good assessment of the current state of affairs.
Well, this guy does keep track and the record looks pretty good. The average of several different prediction markets on 8/5/20 had odds of Biden 59.1 Trump 37.8.
Interesting. Good to see data enter the conversation finally. It [looks like on average, betting markets are about as good as Nate silver.
They also appear to have issues with legality in the US, which limits their effectiveness as a market, and they tend to be very “vibes” based in the short term.
I think that’s a good assessment of the current state of affairs.