• TrickDacy@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    32
    arrow-down
    3
    ·
    3 months ago

    Wtf… No. Don’t replace polls with a weird poll proxy. Ignore all that shit and vote.

    • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      arrow-down
      31
      ·
      3 months ago

      Yeah, don’t go to the places people are actually willing to risk their money. Go to the people with agendas and no evidence of who they even asked. Good one.

        • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          arrow-down
          17
          ·
          3 months ago

          And yet 3 weeks ago, a bet on Harris would have paid half as much as a bet on biden. That was well before even biden announced he was stopping. People’s money says something.

          • Magnor@lemmy.magnor.ovh
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            15
            arrow-down
            2
            ·
            3 months ago

            Holy shit am I really reading an argument about using bets to forecast an election?

            The part of my brain doing math just spontaneously combusted.

            • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              2
              arrow-down
              14
              ·
              3 months ago

              Well, it isn’t fool proof, but somehow, most major prediction markets were saying a harris win was twice as likely as a biden win almost a month ago. If you were asked a month ago who was more likely to win in 2024, would you have said biden or Harris? Probably biden, right? So maybe there is something to them. It’s just an interesting thing. You don’t have to think they are 100%, the world is never that absolute.

          • TrickDacy@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            16
            arrow-down
            4
            ·
            3 months ago

            With a straight face, you say if someone bets on something it’s inherently more true. Betting. An entire industry powered by the mathematical fact that most betters lose. enjoy Putin’s smegma

            • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              1
              arrow-down
              12
              ·
              3 months ago

              Prediction markets. Google it. Check out their successes. Nothing is 100%. The prediction markets have been saying for almost a month th that Harris as president is twice as likely as Biden. Think about it.

              • TrickDacy@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                8
                ·
                3 months ago

                The concept of betting depends on the fact that most betters lose. So yeah I’d say that’s a lot worse than “100%”

                • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  arrow-down
                  6
                  ·
                  3 months ago

                  You just haven’t learned about prediction markets yet. You’re picturing Vegas, where everyone bets against the house and has to take horrible bets. Prediction markets change based on the bets of others. There have been countless scientific studies demonstrating their incredible ability to predict future events. The vast majority of them have basically been announcing bidens announcement for nearly a month prior to it happening.

      • Billiam@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        9
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        3 months ago

        Ah yes, because the wealthy gambling their wealth for the adrenaline high has never happened in the history of ever.

        Ever heard of a card game called chemin de fer?

        • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          arrow-down
          11
          ·
          3 months ago

          This has nothing to do with the wealthy. It’s an interesting observation that the markets called biden dropping out a month before biden announced it.