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Cake day: July 30th, 2023

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  • OK, here we go, so of the 22 PA polls currently up on 538:

    Not red wave: 6

    The New York Times/Siena College
    InsiderAdvantage
    Emerson College
    Quinnipiac University
    YouGov/Center for Working Class Politics

    Just Bad polling: 3

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    Research Co.
    Hunt Research
    OnMessage

    Red Wave: 2

    TIPP Insights - flooded the channel with 4 polls, but the polls split 50/50 with Harris showing a larger margin on her two than Trump did on his two.

    Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Ass. - McLaughlin being Trump’s preferred pollster.

    Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO - While Fabrizio is a Red Wave pollster, GBAO is not. Both polls show Trump up so it’s likely GBAO is just a beard here.

    So of the 22 polls, 7 are run by clearly red biased pollsters. I wouldn’t call 31.8% a “flood”, it’s about in line with MAGA support in the general population.

    6 are run by just questionable sources, I wasn’t able to determine bias other than “bad at their job” bias. Results seem evenly split, 2 Harris, 2 Trump, 2 tied.

    Which leaves 9/22 run by unbiased, quality sources.