• AIhasUse@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    1
    arrow-down
    31
    ·
    3 months ago

    Yeah, don’t go to the places people are actually willing to risk their money. Go to the people with agendas and no evidence of who they even asked. Good one.

      • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        1
        arrow-down
        17
        ·
        3 months ago

        And yet 3 weeks ago, a bet on Harris would have paid half as much as a bet on biden. That was well before even biden announced he was stopping. People’s money says something.

        • Magnor@lemmy.magnor.ovh
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          15
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          3 months ago

          Holy shit am I really reading an argument about using bets to forecast an election?

          The part of my brain doing math just spontaneously combusted.

          • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            2
            arrow-down
            14
            ·
            3 months ago

            Well, it isn’t fool proof, but somehow, most major prediction markets were saying a harris win was twice as likely as a biden win almost a month ago. If you were asked a month ago who was more likely to win in 2024, would you have said biden or Harris? Probably biden, right? So maybe there is something to them. It’s just an interesting thing. You don’t have to think they are 100%, the world is never that absolute.

        • TrickDacy@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          16
          arrow-down
          4
          ·
          3 months ago

          With a straight face, you say if someone bets on something it’s inherently more true. Betting. An entire industry powered by the mathematical fact that most betters lose. enjoy Putin’s smegma

          • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            arrow-down
            12
            ·
            3 months ago

            Prediction markets. Google it. Check out their successes. Nothing is 100%. The prediction markets have been saying for almost a month th that Harris as president is twice as likely as Biden. Think about it.

            • TrickDacy@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              8
              ·
              3 months ago

              The concept of betting depends on the fact that most betters lose. So yeah I’d say that’s a lot worse than “100%”

              • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                2
                arrow-down
                6
                ·
                3 months ago

                You just haven’t learned about prediction markets yet. You’re picturing Vegas, where everyone bets against the house and has to take horrible bets. Prediction markets change based on the bets of others. There have been countless scientific studies demonstrating their incredible ability to predict future events. The vast majority of them have basically been announcing bidens announcement for nearly a month prior to it happening.

                  • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    4
                    arrow-down
                    3
                    ·
                    3 months ago

                    Nope. You’re still not understanding. Betting isn’t mostly winners. It actually comes down at about 50/50 if measured by value and in a fair market. You really just don’t know about this topic. Don’t let that stop you from being condescending, though. It’s kinda sweet in a puppy barking at a truck kinda way.

    • Billiam@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      9
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      3 months ago

      Ah yes, because the wealthy gambling their wealth for the adrenaline high has never happened in the history of ever.

      Ever heard of a card game called chemin de fer?

      • AIhasUse@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        1
        arrow-down
        11
        ·
        3 months ago

        This has nothing to do with the wealthy. It’s an interesting observation that the markets called biden dropping out a month before biden announced it.