He’s not a safe choice. Its the illusion of safety that extends from an incorrect worldview of how voting manifests.
Voters exist as discrete psychodemographic blocs and move in schools/ flocks. They don’t exist on a continuum.
This is from an analysis I’m doing right now:
This is a simulation I ran on the likely (November) distribution of approvals we should expect from Biden given his current approval, and how we’ve seen approval ratings change between in the five month period between now and November.
This is the results of the simulation when we look at the probability of a sample coming from the above distribution coming from the distribution of approval ratings for a president that won a second term.
Basically, this is one way of calculating Biden’s probability of winning the election given the historical relationships between approval ratings, how they change in time, and their relationship to electoral outcomes.
Currently, Biden is rolling with an approximately 6.22% chance of winning.
So Bush Jr. had the lowest approval rating for a president that won a second term. He ended his second term with one of the lowest approval rating of any president of all time (just a short and curly ahead of Nixon).
Some detail:
Including George W. Bush
Approval Shifts:
Mean Shift: 1.91%
Standard Deviation: 10.53%
Winning Candidates' Approval Ratings:
Mean Approval Rating: 50.73%
Standard Deviation: 11.14%
Excluding George W. Bush
Approval Shifts:
Mean Shift: 3.60%
Standard Deviation: 9.40%
Winning Candidates' Approval Ratings:
Mean Approval Rating: 56.35%
Standard Deviation: 4.31%
Notice how the standard deviation associated with the winning candidate tightens up significantly with out Bush?
I do publish the results of these analyses, here, on lemmy. However, I just have a day job that has prevented me from doing “the rest” of this analysis. This is only one part of a larger analysis I have planned.
Wheres the bias? Show me or shut the fuck up cus I’m out here trying to see what the actual data say and you just flappin’ your gums.
The analysis is very very very fucking simple:
We’re using the Gallup approval data because its the only consistent data longitudinal enough to do this kind of analysis.
Calculate the mean and standard deviation of approval ratings for presidents who won a second term (the average of the 30 days right before the election).
Calculate the mean and standard deviation in approval deltas from the approval at election time (november) relative to now (june).
Take the presidents current polling, take a random sample from the delta distribution, and add the two numbers together. Calculate the probability that this number was sampled from a “winning re-election distribution”. Write that probability down.
Do this many times (I did it 10k times).
You and every one who is in denial about Biden being an un-electable, piece of shit, you-are-causing-trump-to-win-by-running-biden, choice.
Yall are so full of shit its coming out of your ears.
He’s not a safe choice. Its the illusion of safety that extends from an incorrect worldview of how voting manifests.
Voters exist as discrete psychodemographic blocs and move in schools/ flocks. They don’t exist on a continuum.
This is from an analysis I’m doing right now:
This is a simulation I ran on the likely (November) distribution of approvals we should expect from Biden given his current approval, and how we’ve seen approval ratings change between in the five month period between now and November.
This is the results of the simulation when we look at the probability of a sample coming from the above distribution coming from the distribution of approval ratings for a president that won a second term.
Basically, this is one way of calculating Biden’s probability of winning the election given the historical relationships between approval ratings, how they change in time, and their relationship to electoral outcomes.
Currently, Biden is rolling with an approximately 6.22% chance of winning.
Biden is not currently a viable candidate.
What does Bush Jr have to do with this? More seriously, Are you going to publish this somewhere?
So Bush Jr. had the lowest approval rating for a president that won a second term. He ended his second term with one of the lowest approval rating of any president of all time (just a short and curly ahead of Nixon).
Some detail:
Including George W. Bush
Excluding George W. Bush
Notice how the standard deviation associated with the winning candidate tightens up significantly with out Bush?
I do publish the results of these analyses, here, on lemmy. However, I just have a day job that has prevented me from doing “the rest” of this analysis. This is only one part of a larger analysis I have planned.
Here are the two distributions:
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Wheres the bias? Show me or shut the fuck up cus I’m out here trying to see what the actual data say and you just flappin’ your gums.
The analysis is very very very fucking simple:
We’re using the Gallup approval data because its the only consistent data longitudinal enough to do this kind of analysis.
Calculate the mean and standard deviation of approval ratings for presidents who won a second term (the average of the 30 days right before the election).
Calculate the mean and standard deviation in approval deltas from the approval at election time (november) relative to now (june).
Take the presidents current polling, take a random sample from the delta distribution, and add the two numbers together. Calculate the probability that this number was sampled from a “winning re-election distribution”. Write that probability down.
Do this many times (I did it 10k times).
You and every one who is in denial about Biden being an un-electable, piece of shit, you-are-causing-trump-to-win-by-running-biden, choice.
Yall are so full of shit its coming out of your ears.
deleted by creator
You don’t know up from down child.
deleted by creator