Wheres the bias? Show me or shut the fuck up cus I’m out here trying to see what the actual data say and you just flappin’ your gums.

The analysis is very very very fucking simple:

We’re using the Gallup approval data because its the only consistent data longitudinal enough to do this kind of analysis.

Calculate the mean and standard deviation of approval ratings for presidents who won a second term (the average of the 30 days right before the election).

Calculate the mean and standard deviation in approval deltas from the approval at election time (november) relative to now (june).

Take the presidents current polling, take a random sample from the delta distribution, and add the two numbers together. Calculate the probability that this number was sampled from a “winning re-election distribution”. Write that probability down.

Do this many times (I did it 10k times).

You and every one who is in denial about Biden being an un-electable, piece of shit, you-are-causing-trump-to-win-by-running-biden, choice.

Yall are so full of shit its coming out of your ears.