cm0002@lemmy.world to memes@lemmy.world · 7 days agoConspiracieslemmy.mlexternal-linkmessage-square81fedilinkarrow-up11arrow-down10cross-posted to: [email protected]
arrow-up11arrow-down1external-linkConspiracieslemmy.mlcm0002@lemmy.world to memes@lemmy.world · 7 days agomessage-square81fedilinkcross-posted to: [email protected]
minus-squarezxqwas@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·7 days agoIf 1 in 20 conspiracy theories are correct then you’ll be 95% correct if you disbelieve all of them. If you pick one to believe in you’ll be about 90% correct on average. If you pick 10 you’ll be about 50% correct.
minus-squarelazynooblet@lazysoci.allinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up0·7 days agoI don’t get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%
minus-squarezxqwas@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·edit-26 days agoIf you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct. You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct. Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%. Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.
minus-squarePeriodicallyPedantic@lemmy.calinkfedilinkarrow-up0·7 days agoLooks like Big Math got to you
If 1 in 20 conspiracy theories are correct then you’ll be 95% correct if you disbelieve all of them.
If you pick one to believe in you’ll be about 90% correct on average.
If you pick 10 you’ll be about 50% correct.
I don’t get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%
If you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.
You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.
Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.
Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.
Looks like Big Math got to you