If you’re an unhappy voter and want other unhappy voters to hold their noses and vote for the major candidate they least dislike, think about the Golden Rule.
It has been said a gazillion times over the last few months, but is it getting through to those who need to hear it?
You’re ignoring my answers and just repeating your “one person can’t be three” gotcha.
I’ll continue to explain ad-nauseum if you like…
One person only needs to be three if you insist that two meta-analysis polls equal exactly a nice round 100%. There is simply no reason to expect that. In fact, if they did, they would be rather suspect.
There’s only three options:
The two polls show that there are NOT enough anti-Trump Republicans to account for at least half of the 3.5% anti-Trump non-Democrats. (Hint: the polls do not show this. But if they did it would be an argument for third partiers prefering Harris)
There are exactly the right number of anti-Trump Republicans to account for precisely the 3.5% anti-Trump non-Democrats. (The polls do not show this either, and it would be suspiciously convenient if they did).
There are MORE than enough anti-Trump Republicans to account for at least half of the 3.5% anti-Trump non-Democrats. (This is what they show).
Now you can continue to insist that these two polls are meaningless because they don’t perfectly agree with each other, but it’s a weak argument. If you demand that the 8.5 and 3.5 number be closer together before you’ll believe it you can take a peak at the other poll i provided you which, if i recall correctly, takes that 8.5 down to about 4.
I can agree that polls are unreliable and it’s hard to draw consistent mathematical conclusions from them if you like, but that does undermine your overall position somewhat, and I don’t find your fiddling of the numbers that you were previously quoting as gospel to frantically try and make them add up again terribly convincing, sorry.
You do realize that the only reason i posted polling data in the first place was because someone on your side of the argument stated that the polls show that there is too much favorability for Trump among Republicans for the all-voter unfavorability to be anything but due to third partiers, right?
So, no, the general wishy-washiness of polling data does not, in any way undermine my position. Someone on your team used polls to prove something and i am simply reaponding to that claim with “hey, actually, the polls don’t show that.”
You can go back in the threads and check this if you doubt me.
I’m not quoting any one poll as gospel, either. Don’t be silly. I used the first polls i found from a reliable source and posted them. If anyone from “your side” was inclined to enter into this debate with their own data i would have happily dug deeper for some other options sooner, but no one has taken up that task on “your side” of things.
Says the person who did arithmetic with poll data from different polls that made no logical sense whatever.
One more time for the people in the back: this is the type of data that was referenced by someone claiming that third partiers are all Harris supporters. Did you want me to disprove them by using some other unrelated data? I looked up the types of polls that THEY rferenced and ahowed that those polls do not show what they claimed.
You seem to have decided that third partiers favor Harris. So i am referring to you as being on “that side” of the argument. Is this not what you believe?
I don’t recall anyone saying they were Harris supporters. Why would they vote third party if they supported Harris?! No, the people you’re arguing with just said that they dislike Trump. I honestly don’t know why you find that hard to believe.
I don’t recall anyone saying they were Harris supporters
You’re joking right? I mean, at this point you must be joking. The entire premise of the article in this post was that third partiers are, to large extent, Harris over Trump supporters. This is the exact premise i am calling into question. Nothing else. Here’s my exact quote:
“And why is everyone assuming that all of the third party voters would be Harris voters if they were forced to choose between the two main candidates? This is where the logic goes south. It assumes that the third party voters are some homogenous bloc of disenfranchised “not Trump” voters.”
I never claimed that anyone thinks that third partiers secretly prefer Harris over their own third party candidates. Where do come up with this?
No, the people you’re arguing with just said that they dislike Trump.
I’m sorry, but you’re mistaken. The article is specifically stating that third partiers prefer Harris over Trump. In all of my original comments i call this assumption into question. And all commenters after that follow (or should have followed) that train of thought. If they don’t, then i have no quarrel with them because i am here to argue one thing and one thing only: the assumption that third partiers largely prefer Harris over Trump is a baseless claim. That’s it.
I think you should re-read the article. I don’t think it says what you think it says. I think it says that they dislike Trump and they dislike Harris and that they might be mistaken in their belief that they dislike both equally, and that they should figure that out and vote to stop the one they dislike the most by voting for the other one. It doesn’t at any point claim that third party voters support Harris.
You’re ignoring my answers and just repeating your “one person can’t be three” gotcha. I’ll continue to explain ad-nauseum if you like…
One person only needs to be three if you insist that two meta-analysis polls equal exactly a nice round 100%. There is simply no reason to expect that. In fact, if they did, they would be rather suspect.
There’s only three options:
Now you can continue to insist that these two polls are meaningless because they don’t perfectly agree with each other, but it’s a weak argument. If you demand that the 8.5 and 3.5 number be closer together before you’ll believe it you can take a peak at the other poll i provided you which, if i recall correctly, takes that 8.5 down to about 4.
I can agree that polls are unreliable and it’s hard to draw consistent mathematical conclusions from them if you like, but that does undermine your overall position somewhat, and I don’t find your fiddling of the numbers that you were previously quoting as gospel to frantically try and make them add up again terribly convincing, sorry.
You do realize that the only reason i posted polling data in the first place was because someone on your side of the argument stated that the polls show that there is too much favorability for Trump among Republicans for the all-voter unfavorability to be anything but due to third partiers, right? So, no, the general wishy-washiness of polling data does not, in any way undermine my position. Someone on your team used polls to prove something and i am simply reaponding to that claim with “hey, actually, the polls don’t show that.”
You can go back in the threads and check this if you doubt me.
I’m not quoting any one poll as gospel, either. Don’t be silly. I used the first polls i found from a reliable source and posted them. If anyone from “your side” was inclined to enter into this debate with their own data i would have happily dug deeper for some other options sooner, but no one has taken up that task on “your side” of things.
Says the person who did arithmetic with poll data from different polls that made no logical sense whatever.
Out of interest, whose side do you think I’m on?
One more time for the people in the back: this is the type of data that was referenced by someone claiming that third partiers are all Harris supporters. Did you want me to disprove them by using some other unrelated data? I looked up the types of polls that THEY rferenced and ahowed that those polls do not show what they claimed.
You seem to have decided that third partiers favor Harris. So i am referring to you as being on “that side” of the argument. Is this not what you believe?
I don’t recall anyone saying they were Harris supporters. Why would they vote third party if they supported Harris?! No, the people you’re arguing with just said that they dislike Trump. I honestly don’t know why you find that hard to believe.
You’re joking right? I mean, at this point you must be joking. The entire premise of the article in this post was that third partiers are, to large extent, Harris over Trump supporters. This is the exact premise i am calling into question. Nothing else. Here’s my exact quote: “And why is everyone assuming that all of the third party voters would be Harris voters if they were forced to choose between the two main candidates? This is where the logic goes south. It assumes that the third party voters are some homogenous bloc of disenfranchised “not Trump” voters.”
I never claimed that anyone thinks that third partiers secretly prefer Harris over their own third party candidates. Where do come up with this?
I’m sorry, but you’re mistaken. The article is specifically stating that third partiers prefer Harris over Trump. In all of my original comments i call this assumption into question. And all commenters after that follow (or should have followed) that train of thought. If they don’t, then i have no quarrel with them because i am here to argue one thing and one thing only: the assumption that third partiers largely prefer Harris over Trump is a baseless claim. That’s it.
I think you should re-read the article. I don’t think it says what you think it says. I think it says that they dislike Trump and they dislike Harris and that they might be mistaken in their belief that they dislike both equally, and that they should figure that out and vote to stop the one they dislike the most by voting for the other one. It doesn’t at any point claim that third party voters support Harris.