Like the cartel will allow the prices to fall even if there was more RAM available.
We really need someone who is already so fed up with all this bullshit, yet who also possesses the necessary knowledge and connections to develop the RAM required to accelerate the normalization of prices. I would certainly chip in, even if it were just a few measly cents, and I’d of course spread the word to the point that I would turn out annoying.
Plus it would be even better if it were open hardware, as much as possible. It’s a shame that this is only a fucking utopia, I’m so tired of all this already. Fucking bomb all those fucking CEOs to fucking ashes.
Don’t install Windows 11, play AAA games from the last couple of years or run local LLM models and even 16GB DDR4 are fine.
If you’re worried about your existing DIMMs burning (an unlikely event unless your machine is already pretty unstable because they’re constantly overheating), there’s no “apocalypse” for DIMM heatsinks and fans to point at them, or you can just reduce the speed memory is access at in your motherboard is it’s a decent one (and the way termal balance for heat generation in electronic devices works, a small percentual reduction in speed yields a significant reduction in equilibrium temperature).
My steam library is stacked with older games that I have to get through. I’m good on PC parts for the next decade. In the meantime, I hope they all burn in hell.
Do people still reckon?
From time to time, yeah
That’s only a couple years from now, I can wait. Simultaneously, Chinese memory manufacturers are ramping up, so maybe a mega glut will develop and we can get back on track with the long-term trend of falling memory prices.
A form of product dumping(market flooding) I can get behind
Just make more RAM. 🤷♂️
RAM manufacturers (there aren’t many) don’t want to invest in scaling up production. They know the bubble will pop fairly soon. Also, price fixing.
There’s an element of that, or at least there was an element of that. Right now supply chain analysis shows they’re ramping up literally as fast as physically possible. It’s so bad that even basic things like valves, piping, and ceramic components are back-ordered for months or years. A laser tool maker is quoted as waiting more than 40 months for parts now. This is putting supply strain on tens of thousands of components which we never imagined we would suddenly require in much larger quantities.
I think the good news is that on the other side of this, we’ll have unprecedented production capacity for RAM and storage. If AI continues to gobble up capacity, it’ll mean abundant and cheap inference. If it doesn’t, it’ll mean abundant and cheap RAM and storage.
Yeah, they probably were a bit conservative before but when you can fill a whole production line with back orders it’s really a no brainer.
It’s not that simple from the manufacturers perspective.
Setting up a new fab takes years. Usually 5 or more for a grounds up build. Less for an upgrade (1-2 years or so). Lots of in-progress fabs have been sped up and we will see more supply sooner, but not soon enough.
Making less HBM and more DDR RAM doesn’t make sense for $hareholders, so we are stuck with getting supply at a trickle such that the marginal cost for both is equal or it’s a contract with a penalty larger than any profits
A lot of data center stuff was on the ballots and quite a lot of it was rejected by voters. They may not be able to use the RAM they’re hoarding. If investors pull out of AI, they’ll have no choice but to sell it off to pay the bills.
I’m not real savvy on this stuff though, so it’s just an uneducated guess of mine.
they will just build where they haven’t been rejected, or where locals are more receptive of bribery, token offers of a new park or somesuch, or buyouts on their property
I read some research showing the average local voter was amenable to a $10k bribe. I think locals should be negotiating for electricity price caps. E.g. 10c/kWh. Anything over that is paid for by the data center owner. This puts money into the pockets of all locals over a long period of time, and insulated them from the demand surge causing price spikes all over the US.
gamer zeitgeist already forgot Google illegally destroyed a forest in order to erect a datacenter.
gamers truly have the RAM of a goldfish.Well RAM is volatile so someone running on just it would be prone to forgetting things.
shareholdersinside traders
That’s a massively optimistic prediction if the AI economy doesn’t implode. It’s quite likely consumer electronics will be a faded memory (no pun intended) before they let people have their own devices again. I’d put it at 2035, with 2030 at the earliest.
If course if AI goes belly up, there could be a massive sell off and prices could drop as soon as next year… assuming there’s a global economy left to buy electronics at that point.
How would you prefer your tech apocalypse? Matrix or Mad Max?
How would you prefer your tech apocalypse? Matrix or Mad Max?
The Flintstones, but without the bigotry and misogyny. The animal cruelty is okay as long as they quip.
If the bubble pops hard enough, the prices of those servers will drop so low they’ll become consumer electronics. Oh that RAM won’t fit in my desktop? Screw it, I’ll figure out how to put Linux on that rackmount.
(Wait, this this thing will only run FreeBSD? Eh close enough)I’m not sure consumers are ready for a 1kWh server as a home/office item
That’s maybe 10% more than my current rig.
In other words I’m so ready.
That’s already the peak power draw of a good setup, hell its the power draw of a 5090 alone for the insane few who worship at NVidias feet.
Well, don’t forget the third option:
- Terminator / “por que no los dos?” / all of the above
Mad max, I don’t mind going rouge to scrounge for tech
I saw the matrix when I was too young for it, and that scene of humans being harvested for energy was burned into my mind. Fuck no, never that.
You’re going red?
Based on how markets responded during the AI stock selloff last week, an AI crash may not actually bring the the broader economy.
Judging by my experience of the previous 2 big Crashes (the 2000 one and the 2008, when I was actually in Finance), it’s not the first big market correction that’s the “oh shit” moment when basically everybody holding the overvalued stock just gives up and sells in a chain reaction were the more that gets sold the more the price falls the more people panic and sell.
(I remember that shit happenned in 2008 such as the price of Bear Sterns falling massivelly and it being bought for pennies by another bank and that wasn’t the “oh, shit” moment, that moment was a week later when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt).
I suspect either we get a couple of cycles of big falls and small recoveries until prices fall enough so that most of the money that entered during the bubble is at risk of being underwater (and if you look at the stock prices of even the ones which fell the most, they’re still way above the start of this year so most stockholders are still comfortably above water) - which if I remember it correctly was how the 2000 Crash started - or a big name bankrupcy like in 2008, and then the panic starts.
When the real “fun” happens you’ll see things like stockmarket automatic triggers for stopping the trading of certain stocks (which only happens for falls of the stock’s price in a single day which are above a certain percentage) being frequently triggered all over the place and this stuff hasn’t happened yet for big names.
Something like Anthropic or OpenAI going bankrupt (possibly even already being bankrupt but hiding it with accounting tricks Enron-style) would almost certainly start the fireworks, though the way things are maybe Oracle is the one that blows up first and starts the run on the markets.
My money is on Meta to be the Lehman Bros that kicks off the crash. I feel like they’re over-extended and playing games with the math to keep from saying it out loud. Oracle is a possibility though, my gut is just saying Facebook is the sick man that’s going to fall first.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, nor do I claim to have insider knowledge of Meta’s operations.
Personally, I’m pretty sure my schadefreude will be even more epic if Meta blows than if Oracle blows.
But yeah, from the massive losses of the AI AND the Metaverse investments from Meta that I read about, it might very well be that they have unbalanced the company’s finances too much to the point that a retraction of the money markets due to uncertainty around AI (making them unable to get loans or roll existing loans in good enough terms) ends up toppling the company.
I mean, Lehman Brothers toppled essentially from over-exposure to Credit Derivates, a kind of financial instruments people outside the business knew had never heard about until it they started blowing up and all of a sudden nighttime public TV news were even talking about CDO2
Exactly. If I understand the market signals, Meta has put a lot of money into datacenter shell companies that are facing a lot of local market resistance. If the market pulls back from throwing good money after bad on failed datacenter projects, combined with a lot of contraction in the social media space and slipping ad revenue, AND the mounting lawsuits, I feel like Meta could be the weak link. Again, don’t quote me on that, I am guessing, but I feel like there’s just enough publicly available info to make a circumstantial case.
Diesel prices vs stagnant wages will be the doom of the rest of the economy.
Maybe. Maybe not. We’re in uncharted waters and it could go a lot of different directions. There’s too many unknown variables right now.
All those data centers will need to be used for something. They’ll either figure out how to use the AI optimized RAM for VDI, or the fabs will switch back and only sell to data centers.
They’ll sell us dumb terminals and a virtual desktop subscription. It would be great for like 90% of consumers if the companies running it weren’t evil.
90%? You optimist.
By that point, we’ll all be converting laptop RAM like that one legend, recently. 🤷🏼♂️
Fuck these leeches.
tis ur inaction. u’r truly at fault.
Ork bots are really glitchy these days.
funny, TeamGroup hosts robots to automate their work🤣😂🤣
If the devs are reading these logs: your bot’s busted. ☝🏼
If the bubble pops, the US economy goes with it. It’ll be 2008 all-over again.
Hopefully not like 2008 all over again because this time I’m hoping (maybe coping) that there’ll actually be some consequences for those responsible. We can’t just let our economy get held hostage every few years by a few greedy assholes. Hopefully with lessons learned, and a bluer government, we can break this cycle. The economy crashing in 2028 would be pretty good timing for that setup.
1980s*
history is officially a poem.If this is a bubble, it’s not a very impressive one. The dot-com bubble was built on companies with little or no revenue, and the Nasdaq eventually fell about 78%. Today the S&P 500 trades on a forward P/E of 18.7, below its 5 and 10 year averages, with Q3 earnings growth at 29.5%. Nvidia, for example, arguably the epicenter of the bubble, just made $63.7bn of operating income on $96.2bn of revenue at a 75% gross margin. So this bubble is built on organic growth and insane real demand. Google Cloud grew 103%. Azure 48%. AWS 39%.
Also, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic are publicly traded. They can implode and it’ll leave barely a ripple in the stock market.
None of the AI companies are making money, Nvidia is making some, but large amounts of it’s worth much like the other tech companies involved is fictional. All based on circular finance and buying through third parties to cover actual costs. It’s as corrupt as you can get.
Nvidia, SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron are the only ones in this whole business that actually make large amounts of money, because they are the people selling the pickaxes and shovels for the gold rush. (Micron reported an absolutely insane 89% margin on the chips that go to vendors supplying the consumer market a few weeks ago - that number was around 30% before this madness started)
I agree that NVidias money flows are circular, but all that investor money that flows into AI companies is moving to those 4 companies and to pay the power bills.
Nvidia booked $63.7bn operating income last quarter, and the equity gains you’re thinking of are a separate $7.8bn line underneath that. AWS made $17.8bn operating profit and Google Cloud $11.1bn in the same period, off customers who actually paid.
There’s nothing illegal or corrupt about Anthropic purchasing compute from SpaceX.
Holy shit, two cakes
RAM has pretty good shelf life, and it can be taken put from server racks too
nobody who paid for PC hardware in the last 2 years will admit it.
