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Cake day: December 24th, 2025

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  • Ultimately, a lot of the ideas you’re talking about are just models. Models are useful insofar as they can explain data and make predictions. “Believing” in a model isn’t something that scientists do. We use models as long as they’re useful, update them with new information, and abandon them if they stop being useful.

    One important thing about hypotheses and the models they feed into is that they are falsifiable. If there’s nothing that could prove an idea wrong, it’s not really science. String Theory is a good example of this. It’s totally internally consistent but it’s almost perfectly designed such that any measurement that could be made to prove it wrong is completely impossible. To me, that’s not science anymore, it’s some sort of mathematical philosophy.

    The “universe is a black hole” idea fits into this not-quite-science frame. Any data that could prove it wrong would only be gathered from outside the observable universe, which is impossible. So, unfortunately, it’s not quite science.













  • The third estate had effectively politically overthrown the old regime by like day five of the estates general. There would still be a king, but the clergy-nobility-commons divide was gone and there would be representative government. Not enough, obviously, but a step in the right direction.

    Denton decided the people he didn’t like needed to die and that sent things spinning out toward murderville for everyone, including eventually himself. Basically everyone who would have built upon those small steps fled the country or were murdered. Many of them were shitheads, yes. But I think France would have been better off without the head-choppy parts of the revolution.



  • Let’s go with one of your examples, and I think the quintessential one: France, 1792. The monarchy is crumbling. It’s terrible. Let’s burn it all down. Yay! The monarchy is over!

    Wait, what now? War with Austria for no reason? Executing tons of nonviolent and political prisoners? Terror as a form of government (that killed more peasants than aristocrats)? Coups and counter-coups and then Napoleon who plunges Europe into basically the zeroth world war. Millions die. Napoleon is eventually defeated, twice.

    What came after? A slightly reformed (1814), and then slightly more reformed (1830), Bourbon monarchy. Boy, I bet the third estate might have preferred to get to that kinda boring reformed era a little faster and without all the dead people. (I guess I don’t blame the third estate, I blame Danton. But still.)