I mean in terms of percentages.
And I don’t necessarily mean three full terms. 2.5 terms or 2.1 terms or anything nontrivially more than 2 (like, 10 minutes more doesn’t count) would qualify.
Greater than 50%, mostly due to the complete spinlessness of the greater USian population. People used to riot for less, and often.
Trump changes constitution to allow himself additional terms. Monkey paw curls. Obama term 3 confirmed.
I’m kind of hoping Trump kicks the bucket before the end of this term. Keep feeding him hamberders.
About 50/50. SCOTUS has already ruled that the 3rd section of the 14th amendment to the US constitution doesn’t mean what it plainly says, so there’s no real hope that they’d uphold the 22nd.
The only reason I place it that low is because he’s ripe for a fatal heart attack or stroke.
about 12
A more interesting question to me would be "What are the chances that the 2028 elections are allowes to be carried out freely (e.g. without the governing powers forcing the outcome they want)?
Zero.
He has moderate dementia, and will be replaced by JD Vance before the end of his term.
Moderate?
It can’t happen without some major fuckening from the Supreme Court which would absolutely end it’s legitimacy and would probably end in standoffs between US Marshalls and blue state courts and federal courts in liberal circuits as they just completely ignore the Supreme Court going forward.
The text of the 22nd amendment couldn’t be interpreted any other way except as written: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
1/3 normal election with new candidate 1/3 trump dies for whatever reason, probably choking on taco bell 1/3 fascist takeover (though the term “president” may not apply, and it may not be him running things). I think enough dems would flip if threatened with terrorism charges for normal politics being interpreted as protest or whatever other laws originally made in reaction to far right acts of terror.
So imo, 50%, mostly because we have 4 years of extremely uncertain change that can occur.
Imagine maga nuts storming McDonald’s because trump died on a bigmac
After all we just witnessed?
Four years stalling courts and avoiding punishment for insurrection, theft of classified documents, etc.
Getting legal permission to break any law he pleases.
Convincing even democrats that tge constitution, specifically the Fourteenth amendment, means nothing and isn’t worth acting on.
Openly planning the worst possible cabinet.
Not having any investigation or action on votes from targeted minorities get Jim Crow’d away.
No recounts when suspicious vote trends are spotted.
Survival of an assassination attempt.
… Yeah I’m going high. 70% chance minumum if he wants to. He could just order a public hit on the next in line as a presidential act. Clearly no one will stop him.
There should not BE a timeline where he succeeded the second time. The fact that there is implies he can do literally anything he wants.
I suspect he won’t do another two full terms, but not because of any inherent virtue in the system. I think it’ll just come down to biology. He’s 78, not in good health anyway and about to enter a very high-stress job. If he’s still going at 86 I’ll be surprised.
And that’s assuming the cabal of demented fascists he’s assembled around him don’t tear him apart the second he shows any sign of weakness or of no longer being useful to them, which they definitely will.
i agree - he can change any law he wants
5%. Pray this timeline does not roll a 5 or less in a d100
1 percent. There’s too much they would need to do in four years to not have an election and elections are done by the states not the federal government. So there will definitely be an election. As far as getting re-elected it would take draconian measures for the exact same reason. He’d need 270 electoral votes worth of states to blatantly go against the Constitution.
The only way he remains in office past January 20th 2029 is by refusing to leave and surrounding himself with loyalists. Thus the 1 percent chance. It could work if a million things go exactly right.
And him not dying before then too
zero. it would require 2/3rds of the senate and that will not happen. they barely have the house.
If they want to do it by the book. Could just say the election is postponed due to martial law and the invasion from Mexico or Canada or whoever really it doesn’t seem to matter.
High chance he dies or goes full dementia in the next four years though. If he were 50 the chances of him stealing another term would be a lot higher. Prob just rig it more than it already is so they can’t lose and pick his successor.
Martial law does not prevent our elections from happening. That’s not “by the book”.
US has been at war most of its existence. That’s never prevented an election from occurring
Changing the amendment would be by the book. I’m saying they can just do anyway and tie it up in the courts that they control. And he has congress so he could whip up a frenzy and postpone the date indefinitely. If he’s still alive and has the threat of court cases restarting and new ones for whatever he gets up to this term you’ll need to literally drag him out he’ll have nothing to lose.
None of that is by the book. There’s no mechanism that lets the president stay in power by “tying things up in court”. Any attempt to do what you describe is just a coup.
And there’s zero chance that amendment gets passed. We can barely get a simple 50% majority for the budget passed.
Sir I’m saying doing it properly through changing the amendment is by the books and NOT what they’ll do. They’ll do a coup again.
That depends on two things.
Will he live that long?
Will the people who own him let him have it?
50/50. It really depends on the midterms imo, assuming we have fair midterms
I’d say like 20%. Not unlikely he’ll try but there will be pushback. Also his age and health or an assassin might well get to him first. He might try going for a family dynasty instead, with Donald Jr following him.
or an assassin
I’m absolutely convinced, between the previous attempts and every single legal issue of any consequence, that he literally is “Teflon Don.”
If an assassin actually gets a clear shot, it will somehow bounce off and kill whoever is actually running against Trump. That’s the timeline we live in. The joke one.
New Trump conspiracy just dropped:
It turns out Trump actually does have a superpower. He can Groundhog Day himself at will. He can create a save state of reality and load it at will. Or he can set up time loop of up to say, 6 months in length. He won the election because he literally ran that campaign hundreds, perhaps thousands or tens thouands of times before finally getting it right. He’s save scumming reality. Though, this is also the reason he talks so oddly and is all screwed up. Thousands of subjective years giving political speeches just fries your brain.
He’s been using that experimental DoD bulletproof spray tan
Good thing luck isn’t genetic (at least I think so)
That already happened except the victim was his supporter.
Donald jr following him.
Id rather kill myself right now than live in that reality.
