If NATO fades into oblivion, that would be a great opportunity for European countries to make a news defense organization where a single country like Hungary or Turkey can’t play their political games.
Technically the EU already is an defence organisation (Lisbon accords), even with a stronger mutual assistance clause than NATO. What is different is that there is no integrated command structure. But that is currently rapidly changing, Germany and the Netherlands already are fully integrated (more than NATO standards are), the Baltics are making great progress.
I expect that the EU is going to have to claim defence competencies to continue the Union’s defense. There are way too many small countries in NATO that can’t contribute meaningfully to a military beyond some basic battalions and the EU needs something more robust than France and Poland.
If NATO fades into oblivion, that would be a great opportunity for European countries to make a news defense organization where a single country like Hungary or Turkey can’t play their political games.
Technically the EU already is an defence organisation (Lisbon accords), even with a stronger mutual assistance clause than NATO. What is different is that there is no integrated command structure. But that is currently rapidly changing, Germany and the Netherlands already are fully integrated (more than NATO standards are), the Baltics are making great progress.
There is at least a chance
I expect that the EU is going to have to claim defence competencies to continue the Union’s defense. There are way too many small countries in NATO that can’t contribute meaningfully to a military beyond some basic battalions and the EU needs something more robust than France and Poland.