The polls seem to disagree with you, at least before Harris’ pick of Walz was announced. She’s peeled off a solid 5-6% from Trump in some states, turning him from a +4 favorite to a -1 tossup in some Georgia polls, for example, or turning a Trump +3 favorite in Pennsylvania into a Harris +3 favorite between Biden’s decision to suspend his campaign and late last week.

I’m not expecting to see Walz’s announcement making any big waves right away, but it gives them a chance to extend the excitement cycle for a while.