Shirvan at CaspianReport did a piece on this recently. His view seemed to be that it’s unlikely the frontline is going to move very much more and that current miltary actions from both sides may be for the purpose of gaining leverage during negotiations.
He paints a picture where:
UA retains sovereignty and is provided a path to EU accession
UA receives security guarantees
UA concedes some of its territory to RU
UA is prohibited from joining NATO
This would allow:
VZ to claim UA’s sovereignty was defended
VZ to move UA further into the Eurosphere
VP to claim RU achieved its goal of stopping NATO advance
VP to claim RU achieved its goals of better access to Crimea
The whole thing seemed pretty pragmatic, give it a watch if you’re interested in this sort of thing.
Shirvan at CaspianReport did a piece on this recently. His view seemed to be that it’s unlikely the frontline is going to move very much more and that current miltary actions from both sides may be for the purpose of gaining leverage during negotiations.
He paints a picture where:
This would allow:
The whole thing seemed pretty pragmatic, give it a watch if you’re interested in this sort of thing.