The US could take over Iran easily but it’d require a full ground invasion and political will that isn’t there. There’d be videos on socials of US soldiers getting blown to bits by drones which would be a disaster for the republicans.

Without that, to keep the Strait closed all Iran has to do is keep the threat active which isn’t very costly comparatively.

And even with that, they’d need a continued presence indefinitely or they’d just hand it back to them when they left like they did with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

They’ve also spent generations compartmentalising and decentralising their command structures in preparation for this war so for every commander they kill a new one pops up to replace them.

We’re in a very dangerous position right now. If the Strait stays closed it will cause a global depression within a few months. China gets 35% of its energy through the straight and could pass advanced targeting data + supersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran to enable them to clear the blockade. Who knows how Trump would respond to that. Apparently he’s already written a letter to Xi asking him to pls not do that 😂

China would much prefer to do nothing of course but if they’re backed into a corner all bets are off.

There are multiple factions in Iran, and it seems the main one isn’t for backing down so we need Trump to be able to frame his defeat as a win somehow and fuck off before this gets really messy.

On Russia, it has a smaller GDP than Italy and it’s not just competing against Ukraine but Ukraine + support from Europe and partial support from the US depending on Trumps mood.

On both fronts it has created a rallying around the flag effect where the threat is existential to the population. That is very hard to beat.

Trump and his minions were hoping for a rebellion they could back/support in Iran - but instead the natives are surrounding power plants and acting as human shields.