• tetris11@lemmy.mlEnglish
        20·
        24 hours ago

        Upon deeper analysis, you are correct. I was a bit floored by what appeared to be a power curve near the beginning, but after actually plotting, it’s a simple linear trend:

        Data

        Code 
          curl https://www.openssh.com/releasenotes.html \
     | sed -nr '/^<h3><a/s/.*OpenSSH ([0-9.]+).*\(([0-9-]+)\).*/\2\t\1/p' \
     | sort \
     | sed -r 's|([0-9]+)\.([0-9]+)\.([0-9]+)|\1.\2\3|' \
     | column -t -N 'Date,Version' > openssh.dat
  head openssh.dat

        Which yields:

        Date        Version
2000-03-05  1.22
2000-03-24  1.23
...
2025-02-18  9.9
2025-04-09  10.0

        Fit

        Code 
          gnuplot -p -e '
    set xdata time;
    set timefmt "%Y-%m-%d";
    set xlabel "Date"; set format x "%Y";
    set ylabel "Version";
    f(x) = a*x + b;
    a = 1e-10; b = -100;
    fit f(x) "openssh.dat" using 1:2 via a,b;
    set label 1 sprintf("Fit: Version = (%.3e * Date) %.3f", a ,b) at graph 0.05,0.95 left;
    plot "openssh.dat" using 1:2 with points title "Versions", f(x) with lines title "Fit"
  '

        Which yields:

        Predict

        Use Y = (mX) + C, or Version = (9.55651e-09 * Date) -6.75132

        Code

        Note that Date are Epoch timestamps.

        export VERSION="43.2"

date +%Y-%m-%d -d \
 @$(
    export m="9.55651e-09";
    export c="-6.75132";
    ## Use python for better scientific number handling 
    python -c "print(($VERSION - $c)/$m)"
 )

        For OpenSSH version 43.2, the predicted date is:

        2135-08-21

        So, assuming a linear trend and no cataclysmic events that would pause development for a few thousand years, then it’s only 110 years into the future

          • tetris11@lemmy.mlEnglish
            2·
            56 minutes ago

            thanks! oh well data formatting, just 15 years of messing around with awk and sed

            Data fitting, gnuplot does all the heavy lifting with the modelling, and I always have to look up the syntax because I never remember it haha

            Play around and have fun with the code snippets!