Haven’t seen another post for election updates yet, so creating this. Share your bets on how many times Anthony Green is going to have a screen malfunction.
As someone watching from the other side of the world - is this another election victory that can be chalked up to Trump?
Looking at the Wikipedia page of election polling over time, just like Canada, there is a strong clear drop after the US inauguration.
I think Trump was a contribution. The conservative opposition were leading the polls but lost their mojo in the last couple of months
With this kind of a swing, and the opposition leader losing his seat, it does seem that way, at least in part. But many people don’t like Dutton either I think.
Just wish the Labour party in the UK would learn from this rather than triangulating with Farage’s fucking racist bullshit.
If Labour take anything from this election its that Starmer should walk into his cabinet room tomorrow/this morning and put all his chips on electoral reform.
Top of the list, ‘soft mandatory’ voting. He’s surely got the numbers in Parliament, he’s already quite unpopular, and he’s probably someone you could trust to deliver electoral reform that represents what the people in a given election want, not skew ot to what a Party wants.
The Conservatives would never do electoral reform, and if they did, theres no-one there that could be technocratic enough to be reliable. So it could be the UK’s best chance in a long time.
Top of the list, ‘soft mandatory’ voting
Absolutely not. Mandatory voting is great, but the number one two and three thing is voting system reform. They had an IRV referendum a few years back and it failed. Maybe they could take MMP to the people in the future and get more support, and leapfrog is into having an even better system.
But with the rise of Reform over there, I’m not sure they’d want to risk giving smaller parties a path to electoral success.
Na, you need to get the people to the booths, otherwise your always pumping for turnout each election cycle.
Without mandatory voting a dissafected electorate will be more likely to not vote as their message to the politicians in a given election, than send a message by voting. In those circumstances, which the UK is finding itself in a lot! (Brexit included here.) You need to demand the populace make their voices heard.
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There is a practical reason, MMP, IRV, whatever you choose are far more complicated to explain than, ‘you must vote, or i’ll hit you over the head with some parsley.’ Mandatory voting is simple to understand, and demands voters become more engaged, which would help with further reform.
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Smaller parties have to have a path to success, a party of Government needs to be theoretically possible for them all. Genuine electoral reform would need to account for that, otherwise they’d fail to live up to the demands of democratic governance. But this is why I say as an unpopular technocrat, Starmer could be in a rare position here.
Smaller parties have to have a path to success
Under FPTP? No, they don’t. Not a realistic one, anyway.
Yeah, agreed. I’s not defending their current system. I’s arguing for political bias to be taken out of a theoretical election reform process as much as possible.
Choice-ranking systems aren’t hard to explain: “put these people in the order you prefer them”.
The anti-AV campaign had Cameron reading out an algorithm for the vote counting process in a dull voice and trying to establish: “yes well I went to Eton and although I am very clever I find this difficult”. The AV referendum failed in large part because it was a LibDem thing and people wanted to give Clegg a shoeing for going back on his election pledges. (That Clegg got outplayed by Cameron tells you everything you need to know about what a useless chancer he is.)
Well, put it this way, whats harder?
Everybody of voting age has to vote.
Or (for example),
Number the candidates in order of most preferred. (Ranked Choice)
I think the first one is simpler to communicate than the second, and in an electoral reform decision like this simplicity of communication is very important.
But thats my point, not that IRV or MMP, et al, are uniquely hard or complicated to understand.
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Maybe with their second term. Plenty of time for the Trump effect to happen.
Our progressive party probably would have creaked through to a minority victory but this is a historic victory and we have brutalised the conservatives, and that’s due to Trump.
“Trump Factor”
Might hear that a bit tonight.
Almost. American factor. So close…
Finally heard Trump factor. Drink.
Cheers! 🍻
On Sky, Andrew Bolt just blamed Elon Musk for Peter Dutton not winning on Donald Trump’s platform.
I just can’t…
Omg, that’s fucking hilarious!
ABC right now: BREAKING: Peter Dutton has lost his seat in parliament
Unreal
Did she say chemical Ali?
Man by the way they go on you’d think the greens had been in government.
Just jealous because you’re total babes.
All the running from the cops after vandalising signage keeps us fit and trim
Screen still down! Drink!
It’s just pure brain worms on Sky News. I couldn’t watch for more than 5 minutes
Schadenfreude is delicious
But it is very rich, and can be sickening
The final horcrux has been destroyed.
I’m abso-fucking-lutely stoked at this result…
… but how have they called it already with only 2 seats declared ?
Maths and statistics
Fake maths and statistics and science and facts!
Sure but wouldn’t those same maths and statistics allow electorates to be called?
I think maybe the ABC’s website coverage is stuck.
The libs were already not in government and combined with a huge swing against them and no real gains means pretty clear it’s over quickly
Eat shit, Dutton. What a shit campaign those idiots ran
Release the Kraken (the pre-poll votes)
On the one hand, a bit disappointed that the Greens haven’t done amazingly on results so far. But I have a huge sense of relief that Dutton and the Coalition have been soundly rejected.
Yeah it’s a shame. Might be better overall for the quality of aus politics in the long run but labour has been extremely shit in some regards.
Hoping that the Senate will force some progress and the improved confidence of labor will lead to more bold policy but we shall see.
Haven’t seen senate results yet. Greens may be the ‘keep the bastards honest’ choice there
That is crazy
I was not expecting that much of a swing to Labor. Absolutely crazy.
Okay I’m gonna watch some Black Mirror soon. This potato is cooked.
Thanks everyone! Short and sweet.
