look at the math: 60% turn-out, of which 52% voted UCP… that makes it ~31% at best. Which is my point. With FPP whoever is not willing to vote for any of the “major contestants” doesn’t feel like their vote matters. So you’ve got 70% who did not vote for UCP for one or other reason
Now think about this fact: last election conservatives knew they were threatened by NDP, so you’d expect all the UCP loyalists to show up, but in fact turn-out is lower and results are way worse than prior election. In other words if we assume that those 70% contain more UCP supporters (or secession folk) I can’t find plausible evidence to support that. So that’s their entire electorate give or take a few thousands. The rest wants nothing to do with them. If it wasn’t for FPP, AB governance would look very different. But like I said earlier - none of the parties (NDP included) is willing to change that.
none of the parties (NDP included) is willing to change that.
The NDP got to form government due to vote splitting, and should the UCP split vote splitting would hand them the election again so I wouldn’t be that surprised.
As much as I would like that to be true, the UCP got 52% of the vote last election. So even under MMP they would have got a majority government.
look at the math: 60% turn-out, of which 52% voted UCP… that makes it ~31% at best. Which is my point. With FPP whoever is not willing to vote for any of the “major contestants” doesn’t feel like their vote matters. So you’ve got 70% who did not vote for UCP for one or other reason
Now think about this fact: last election conservatives knew they were threatened by NDP, so you’d expect all the UCP loyalists to show up, but in fact turn-out is lower and results are way worse than prior election. In other words if we assume that those 70% contain more UCP supporters (or secession folk) I can’t find plausible evidence to support that. So that’s their entire electorate give or take a few thousands. The rest wants nothing to do with them. If it wasn’t for FPP, AB governance would look very different. But like I said earlier - none of the parties (NDP included) is willing to change that.
The NDP got to form government due to vote splitting, and should the UCP split vote splitting would hand them the election again so I wouldn’t be that surprised.